Drivers of the EU’s Energy Transition Under a Geopolitical Logic: Taking the Russia–Ukraine Conflict as a Watershed

Abstract

Since the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict in February 2022, the European Union’s energy security has sustained an unprecedented shock: pipeline gas supplies from Russia plunged, and the EU’s dependence on Russian natural gas imports fell from 45% in 2021 to 8% in 2023. Against this backdrop, the EU rolled out major energyrelated policies such as the Roadmap to Fully End EU Dependency on Russian Energy, the revised “Fit for 55” package, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), aiming to achieve strategic autonomy, build diversified supplies, and elevate its technological voice. Focusing on shifts in the international order following this triggertype geopolitical event, this article, grounded in realist geopolitical theory, analyzes the drivers of the EU’s energy transition through three core logics: control of geographic space, resource scarcity, and power competition.