Analysing Problems of Chinese Pension Market and Proposing Solutions through Government Initiatives and Private Sector Strategies

Authors

  • Zhenglin LI

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.61173/5hstsf44

Keywords:

Pension, Behavioural Economics, Public Policy, Social Security

Abstract

This study aims to analyse the problems of the Chinese pension market and test whether the current solutions are effective. It combines two ideas of pension reform: privatisation and Richard Thaler’s “Save More Tomorrow” (SMT). A questionnaire was distributed to 577 interviewees to test whether these policies could work for them. The results are analysed using the Z-test and ANOVA test to examine the hypotheses. The results show that privatisation will fail at solving the pension crisis because people are insufficiently informed about the conditions in the pension market. Furthermore, they are more willing to invest to other areas other than private pensions. On the other hand, SMT will be effective as the money illusion makes people ignore the increase in pension rate when their wages increase at the same time. It provides a better policy for the Chinese government to solve the pension crisis. Furthermore, it also shows that the non-neoclassical paradigm can be effectively applied to policymaking.

References

Akerlof, G.A. and Shiller, R.J. (2009) Animal spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Dean&Francis Zhenglin LI Ageing and health in China (no date) World Health Organization. Available at: https://www.who.int/china/healthtopics/ageing (Accessed: 06 August 2023).

Béland, D. and Shinkawa, T. (2007) ‘Public and Private Policy Change: Pension Reform in Four Countries’, Policy Studies Journal, 35(3), pp. 349–371. doi:10.1111/j.1541- 0072.2007.00228.x.

Benartzi, S. and Thaler, R.H. (2007) ‘Heuristics and biases in retirement savings behavior’, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(3), pp. 81–104. doi:10.1257/jep.21.3.81. Butler, S. and Germanis, P. (no date) ‘Achieving Social Security Reform: A Leninist Strategy’, Cato Journal, 3, pp. 547–561.

Chen, V.Y. (2004) A Macro Analysis of China Pension Pooling System: Incentive Issues and Financial Problem. China to raise retirement age to deal with aging population - media (2023) Reuters. Available at: https://www.reuters. com/world/china/china-raise-retirement-age-deal-with-agingpopulation-media-2023-03-14/ (Accessed: 06 August 2024).

Dong, K. and Wang, G. (2014) ‘China’s Pension Challenge: Adaptive Strategy for Success’, Public Administration and Development, 34(4), pp. 265–280. doi:10.1002/pad.1688.

Evans, P. and Staveteig, S. (2009) The Changing Structure of Employment in Contemporary China. UC Berkeley: Institute for Research on Labor and Employment. Available at: https:// escholarship.org/uc/item/62c9905n.

Fang, H. and Feng, J. (2018) ‘The Chinese Pension System’, NBER Working Paper. doi:10.3386/w25088.

Farid, M. and Cozzarin, B.P. (2009) ‘China’s pension reform: Challenges and opportunities’, Pensions: An International Journal, 14(3), pp. 181–190. doi:10.1057/pm.2009.13.

Friedman, M. (1968) ‘The Role of Monetary Policy’, American Economic Review, 58(1), pp. 1–17. Guo Wu Yuan Ban Gong Ting Guan Yu Tui Dong Ge Ren Yang Lao Jin Fa Zhan De Yi Jean [Opinions of The General Office of the State Council on promoting the development of personal

pensions] (2022) The State Council. Available at: https://www. gov.cn/zhengce/content/2022-04/21/content_5686402.htm (Accessed: 10 August 2024).

Holzmann, R. (1997) ‘Pension reform, financial market development, and economic growth: Preliminary evidence from Chile’, Staff Papers – International Monetary Fund, 44(2), pp. 149–178.

Jinchang, Z., Jiagui, C. and Rösner, H.J. (2002) ‘Current and future problems of capital accumulation in the Chinese Pension System’, International Social Security Review, 53(4), pp. 37–48. doi:10.1111/1468-246x.00104.

Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J.L. and Thaler, R.H. (1986) ‘Fairness as a Constraint on Profit Seeking’, American Economic Review, 76(4), pp. 728–741. Labor force, total - China (no date) World Bank Open Data. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF. TOTL.IN?locations=CN (Accessed: 03 February 2024).

Li, D.D. and Li, L. (2003) ‘A Simple Solution to China’s Pension Crisis’, Cato Journal, 23(2).

Li, Q. et al. (2013) ‘China’s labor transition and the future of China’s rural wages and Employment’, China & World Economy, 21(3), pp. 4–24. doi:10.1111/j.1749-124x.2013.12019. x.

Li, Z. (1998) Shehui Baozhang yu Jingji Fazhan [Social Security System and Economic Development]. Wuhan: Wuhan University Press.

Liu, S. et al. (2021) ‘Mechanism study on the impact of China population structure change on the water use of the three main industries’, Sustainability, 14(1), p. 204. doi:10.3390/ su14010204.

Liu, Y. et al. (2018) ‘The interaction of population, industry and land in process of urbanization in China: A case study in Jilin province’, Chinese Geographical Science, 28(3), pp. 529–542. doi:10.1007/s11769-018-0964-4.

Luo, Y., Su, B. and Zheng, X. (2021) ‘Trends and challenges for population and health during population aging — China, 2015– 2050’, China CDC Weekly, 3(28), pp. 593–598. doi:10.46234/ ccdcw2021.158.

Martin, P. (1997) Tabling Draft Legislation to Amend the Canada Pension Plan. Ottawa, Canada: Minister of Finance to the House of Common.

McCarthy, F.D. and Zheng, K. (1999) ‘Population aging and pension systems: Reform Options for China’, Policy Research Working Papers. doi:10.1596/1813-9450-1607. Nenkin Joho Henshubu (Pension Information Editorial Office) (2003) Kigyo Nenkin no Shinjitsu [The Truth of Corporate Pension]. Tokyo, Japan: Nippon Keizai Shinbunsha.

Okumura, T. and Usui, E. (2014) ‘The effect of pension reform on pension-benefit expectations and savings decisions in Japan’, Applied Economics, 46(14), pp. 1677–1691. doi:10.1080/000368 46.2013.870654.

Peng, X. (2022) China’s population is about to shrink for the first time since the great famine struck 60 years ago. Here’s what that means for the world, World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/china-populationshrink-60-years-world/ (Accessed: 03 February 2024).

Pozen, R.C. (2013) ‘Tackling the Chinese Pension System’, Paulson Policy Memorandum. Salditt, F., Whiteford, P. and Adema, W. (no date) ‘Pension Reform in China’, International Social Security Review, 61(3), pp. 47–71.

Shao, Y. and Xu, J. (2001) ‘China’s pension system: Achievements, challenges and future developments’, Cato Journal, 21, p. 395. STATISTICAL COMMUNIQUÉ OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA ON THE 2022 NATIONAL ECONOMIC AND

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT (2023) National Bureau of Statistics of China. Available at: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/ PressRelease/202202/t20220227_1827963.html (Accessed: 03 Dean&Francis ISSN 2959-6149 July 2023).

Teles, S.M. (1998) ‘The Dialectics of Trust’, Annual Meeting of the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. Thaler, R.H. and Substein, C.R. (no date) ‘Save More Tomorrow’, in Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven & London: Yale University Press.

Uthoff, A. (1998) Pension funds, the financing of transition costs and financial markets development: lessons from the Chilean privatization reform.

Wu, L. (2013) ‘Inequality of pension arrangements among different segments of the labor force in China’, Journal of Aging & Social Policy, 25(2), pp. 181–196. doi:10.1080/08959420.201 2.735159. Zhao, Y. and Xu, J. (no date) ‘China’s Urban Pension System: Reforms and Problems’, Cato Journal, 21(3), p. 395.

Zhu, H. and Walker, A. (2018) ‘Pension system reform in China: Who gets what pensions?’, Social Policy & Administration, 52(7), pp. 1410–1424. doi:10.1111/spol.12368.

Zhou, X. (2023) Ge Ren Yang Lao Jin Zhi Du Ru He You Hua? Zhou Xiao Chuan, Wang Wen Ling, Liang Tao Zui Xin Fa Sheng [How can the personal pension system be optimised? Zhou Xiaochuan, Wang Wenling, Liang Tao latest voice], Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang [Web of Securities Times]. Available at: http://www.stcn.com/article/detail/1079567.html (Accessed: 03 February 2024).

Downloads

Published

2024-12-31