How we deal with transition planning as we approach the e-bus era

Abstract

With the rapid development of new energy, the widespread adoption of electric buses is significant. This paper delves into the environmental impact, economic implications, and strategic planning solutions associated with the proliferation of electric buses. We initiate this process by using bus data from Qingdao, China. Subsequently, using the fuel life cycle method, we carefully examined CO and the pollutant emission characteristics of Qingdao bus fleet before and after electrification. The research results reveal that CO, nitrogen oxides, and VOC emissions have all increased. An economic analysis of electric vehicle adoption in public transportation was conducted in response to the second question. Considering government subsidies, a cost-saving model for electric vehicles per 100 kilometers was constructed.

Furthermore, the study found that as the electrification rate increases, the operating costs of electric buses in Qingdao gradually decrease. We developed a comprehensive linear integer programming model to address the third question. The model, aimed at achieving the lowest comprehensive cost while considering various constraints, was solved through the branch and bound method. We applied this model to analyze the optimal plans for completing the conversion of electric buses in Qingdao, Zhengzhou, and Xi’an within a 10-year timeframe. For the fourth question, we have put forward policy recommendations.