Embracing Pure Electric Buses: Vision, Risks and Challenges

Abstract

In this paper, we mainly focus on the current hot discussion of pure electric public transportation trends. First, we discuss the ecological environment improvement of a city if the original fuel buses are converted to pure electric buses. We use a carbon emission model, an indirect one, and a direct one. Through the quantitative consideration of different factors, the carbon emission model of the whole life cycle of a pure electric bus is finally proposed, and the model is cross-verified by sensitivity analysis. Then, taking Hong Kong as an example, we collected the operation data and cost of public transport in Hong Kong and considered the cost pressure brought by replacing its buses with pure electric buses. We considered acquisition costs, operating costs, operating maintenance and repair costs, and battery replacement costs, etc., combined with government subsidy programs, we obtained the relationship between the relevant replacement costs and the number of replacements. Then, we consider whether our model in Hong Kong, New York, and London can provide reference opinions for replacing pure electric buses in these cities. In addition, with the support of a large number of data, we have formulated a government-funded timetable for the replacement of pure electric buses in three cities within ten years, which has a certain reference value. Finally, considering the current situation of buses in Hong Kong, we propose financial and environmental recommendations to the Transport Department of Hong Kong, as well as future forecasts and prospects.